Aviation Industry : Why Bailout is not a Answer

In last few days we are hearing lot of noise on airlines bailout specifically Kingfisher. I really wonder why suddenly we have so many support and view on it. Rahul Bajaj argued strongly against it, with making strong case of open market and survival of fittest in capitalist economy. Still we can argue that we really not embrace capitalism open heartily and rightly so after seeing Wall Street greed collapse of 2008. But arguing that specific airline required to bailout to save the industry is somewhat flawed. Firstly the aviation industry is not going to collapse. Secondly it will create more opportunity for efficient airlines to expand their horizon but still providing budget airfare. Yes you heard correctly. In respect of so many news and fuss about aviation industry crushed due to government apathy and policy, there is one airline still make a profit last quarter when all other airline makes a loss. The airline is indigo. It is my favorite airline and I found it always on time. So the argument that airlines can’t make profit in present environment doesn’t hold completely true. It can be strongly argue that government policy is not at all industry favor and hampering the growth by high airport landing and aviation tax. That can only be changed when government change it pre-liberalization mindset of looking airline as high class luxury rather than middle class necessity of present India. But government policy only can’t make this industry profitable. Efficiency and economy of operation have to done by industries.

Let take an example of most glamour and now most bleeding airline called Kingfisher and presently only profitable Indigo airline . Kingfisher started with promise of really good time in air with all luxury which customer never asked in first place. Also make to look in big they started expanded pan India without checking economy of scale. Also they brought low cost airline Deccan airline which was diametrically opposite to their own brand. Slowly Deccan airline blended to kingfisher as Kingfisher red but it was no longer was low cost airline. The space created by suddenly disappearance biggest low cost airline was ready for a grab. And many player show interest and one airline stand out of it. It was indigo. Airlines stared without much funfair move strategically and slowly expand it to tier two cities. They expand their connectivity by strategically connecting metro with small city between them and efficiently operating to save take off and landing time. In this way they operated in full scale and also can offer ticket at very low price. Also they don’t require hire beautiful air hostess as the passenger love there punctuality rather a false smile of airhostess.

Looking at the above contrast cases, question arises why we should bailout inefficient airline with the hard earned money of tax payer. If it is dying let it die, it will be good for industry in long run. Let also don’t forget that the owner of Kingfisher still having a good time as he just brought Formula 1 team and also he is owner of IPL team. Oh, I just forget to tell, he also owner of biggest beverage group of India whose beer we all love to drink.

Is Wall Street Protest mark end of Capitalism ?

Last few days has marked with some unprecedented movement across the globe against Wall Street greed. The epicenter of the protest is none other than the place which powerful symbol of successful capitalism for whole world just few years back, the United State of America. A natural question arise whether invisible hand of Capitalism has failed and this going to mark end of Capitalism? Whether we will see a new form of economy which is more human and driven by value rather than greed or we will go back to sixties or seventies form of protective and socialistic economy, reversing of Globalizations. At this movement it is very difficult to tell ball will roll on which direction. But we can try to understand chain of event which has brought us to this situation. First leg of the event was falling of Berlin Wall which mark the fall of Communism and Capitalism as winner. It marked Capitalism and Open economy has a sole winner and way to go for a globe. There was a merit that Capitalism was better than Communism as seen in drastic different in standard of life of west and east Europe. But Capitalism itself has its own drawback. But all its deficiency was ignored and as said Winner takes all, the whole world start embracing open economy and Capitalism without thinking on its negative side which has grown like a monster is recent years. The second leg come when Finance sector which become too strong ask absolute free hand on its running without any control especially in US and Europe. This results in all sort of Financial Product and the whole Capitalism became just a paper money with no real link to productivity and efficiency, the basic essence of real Capitalism. The third leg came when this dream crashed and people come out of there dream. The common people, who believe on those dreams shown by so called financial guru in the market, don’t know what hit them. And the last phase we are seeing presently came when the common man like us sees that their hard earned money has been spent on saving those investment guru who were really responsible for their situation are back to their old business of greed but there situation is still no better. This clearly marks the failure of government across the globe and also misinterpretation of real Capitalism. To understand the real Capitalism we have to go back to time when Capitalism as we know in present form was laying it foundation. It was during the Industrialization Revolution that lay foundation for both Capitalism and Communism. Well Capitalism embrace free market and risk taking ability of individual where as Communism work on collective conscious of a society as whole. Capitalism favors to reward the individual hence drive the greed. But the basic assumption of this theory is that each individual will be driven by his own self interest and collective self interest will do more good to society. The term called invisible hand coined by Adam Smith the father of present Capitalism to define this collective good to society. Probably this theory has some element of truth, but the underlining assumption of unbiased and competitive society really not holds good most of the time in real world. Also during Smith time Finance market was not as strong as we have today. Hence Capitalism meaning during Adam Smith time means industrialization, real investment in resources and real transaction of goods and service. But present day capitalism means stock market, various fiancé schemes and so on which really has no connection to real product or service. This pseudo capitalism has become so powerful that we forget the real Capitalism. Let’s hope this protest will not lead to completely abandon Capitalism but result in removing its deficiency which developed in it. We should not forgot that the technology which is fuelling this movement has also has its origin in Capitalism.

Clemency Resolution : Are we Banna Republic ?

In last few weeks we observe Clemency resolution in two states for the peoples who are convicted for terrorist activity and given death penalty. One was related to people convicted to Rajiv Gandhi assassination in Tamil Nadu assembly and other is related to Afzal Guru in J&K assembly. It is really ironic that at one end our politician make hue and cry for becoming tough against terrorism and other end they lose no time for gain of vote bank politics by passing the resolution for Clemency petition for same people who are held responsible for it. One of argument put forward by supporter of resolution is that having person to gallows is not suited for civilized society. Well it can be argued as a national conscious and moral value whether a death penalty should be there as a rule of law or not and make the law accordingly. But overruling is not the solution. The second argument given is that in case of people responsible for Rajiv Gandhi assassination already spent more then twenty years in jail with ten years waiting for death penalty. Well there is nothing inhuman then making a person living in fear for years that his/her next days will be last day. Waiting to be hanged for years is worst then death. But why we should not tackle the root cause. By making is compulsory that president should decide the clemency petition in a specific duration rather than sitting on top of it for years. Otherwise I can only hope that at least my grandchildren will see whether Kasab will get clemency from president or not. In case of Afzal Guru case, it is argue that he was not given proper rights during the trail. Well if that the feeling in some section of society than let reopen the case and have speedy trial under Human right and NGO observation. But even then he again convicted then let him punish as per rule of law. In place of making a law to overcome present short coming , our assembly representative are more interested to overrule judgment given by all level Judiciary based on law enacted by same assembly. By doing this they are really making mockery of whole democratic system. If the things go the way ours assembly representative want it, then it will not in distance future we will see people roaming freely on street after committing heinous crime and convicted because they belong to powerful electoral section of society. That day truly we will become a banana republic.

Why American Kid should should worry about competition from Indian Child

Few weeks back while in my home town I meet mother of my child hood friend of my locality. After talking to her I realize how much really India has changed in last decade and why US should really worry. My friend is from Marwari merchant family. They have a cloth shop in a town. In term of education my friend or his sibling barely passes 12th. Till last generation for them, the education means to have basic understanding of math so that they can manage their account and business. But after coming to know her grandchildren children qualification, I was surprised first and then amazed to know how fast India changed just in a decade or so. One of her granddaughter is practicing CA and other one is professor in a college. This is a sea change in a single generation for a family were male member barely pass 12th and daughter are married as soon they are cross legal age for marriage. It point to basic change in attitude in all section of Society in country, in respect of caste, creed or profession now understand the importance of education. We can crib and surely debate about quality in ton of engineering colleges across of every corner of the country. But at the same time with should really appreciate the fact that this college have become instrument of fulfilling the aspiration of lot of parent in hinter land who can’t fulfill their dream due scarcity of resource during their time. Now I can understand Mr. Obama worry when he asks American Kids to get ready to compete with children from Mumbai and Bangalore. Well now Mr. Obama says to American Kids that they not only required to compete with the children from mega city of India, but also from the small town like Durg or Amravathi.

Why Mr Narendra Modi not correct choice for PM from BJP

Last week there was lot of buzz about PM candidate of BJP for next Parliament election. Mr. Advani seems to suddenly come from slumber after he announces his Rath Yatra against corruption. And the leading news channel loss no time to have central time debate on his yatra and find some hidden ambition in it. It was favorite discussion for last week about PM candidate from BJP as it seems media has already given mandate that the Congress nominee will be so called uncrown price Rahul Gandhi. Although, there is no official words from Congress Party about it. Another person who frequently comes as forefront as BJP Prime Minister candidate is Mr. Narendra Modi. After getting some immediate relief from SC in Gujrat riot, Mr Modi also make his intention clear by announcing sadbhavana fast that he is preparing for top job. Well I am not sure about Advani, but Modi seems to top most contender from PM. But I think it will be like giving a walkover to congress. In present scenario there are no major difference between political party in term image and transparency. One can argue Corruption as a major issue, but is no longer a baby boy for any of the main stream political party. As the general perception of public is all political party are different faces of same coin. Hence the difference in next election will how strategically and smartly party fights the election. My view against Modi as PM is mainly based on two reasons. Firstly the grand image Mr. Modi has created in past few years due to development and good administration in Gujarat, can’t undo his image of post godhra riot. Especially, in the mind of Muslims and moderate Hindus. As election in India is nothing but a number game where few percentage swing of votes will decide who will rule the country. I am sure that major percentage of muslims will votes unanimously to congress and Hindu votes will be spited as there is no common ground to bound them. And this swing can decide a winner among all. Second reason for Mr. Modi as PM choice is coalition partner of BJP.As the other coalition party in NDA will not going to easily digest Mr. Modi as NDA choice. Mr. Nitesh Kumar already make it intention clear during bihar election by showing his displeasure of having him in a poster with Mr. Modi. Also secular party in NDA will not be ready to lose there muslim votes. Hence it seems a very difficult path for Mr. Modi in respect how hard he try and how good his image after Gujarat development. Some time past sin seems to haunt a person whole life.

Fault in Goverment Schemes like Employment Guarantee

Last month I visited my hometown in Chhattisgarh. As monsoon has just arrived in central India, it was cultivation just started to begin. During one of my visit to village I encounter one peculiar problem originate due to government policies. There is huge of shortage of worker in farming and also if available they are highly costly. Hence many farmers not eager to take land for cultivation own by others. Due to this many land remain uncultivated and become barren. The underline reasons for this are government scheme like National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA) by central government and two Rs Kg rice program by state government. Well the intention of both policies can’t be question but the implication can be question. The intention is to provide constant basic income to poorest of poor but at the same time it makes them sole dependent on government subsidy. It can be a good vote bank policy but bad for economy and growth. NREGA emphasis on unskilled work, that mean a work doesn’t really add any value to his/her skill after working for years and still will depend on scheme like this to survive. Nor this scheme will make him to come out of spiral of poverty. Also there is lack of imagination on this type of project as in many places the outcome of this type of work is negligible. Apart, this is causing negative impacts on other area like agriculture and industry due to scarcity of worker and impact on cost.
Well I still favor this type scheme but with more thought process and imagination required on them. Why this type of scheme can’t be tied with productivity ? Let say employment guarantee can tied with primary education goal or with other agriculture scheme like National Horticulture mission. Also it should be focused on real poor region rather than implementing it across the country in respect of places where there are sufficient job opportunities and wages. This help in safe guarding on negative impact it is causing on economy. Also emphasis should be given on creating skill of the people rather than labor based unskilled works. This will help poor people to come out of poverty. Otherwise they will be just become a instrument of bring the same ruling elite again to power.

Why ruling elite feel threaten ?

I was sitting with my friends in a room; glue to TV watching Anna arrest saga was unfolding. We all were excited to see the support Anna is getting. But one of friend was more concern than happy to see all these. It has taken me few minute to understand the actual reason. He is political active with high ambition. And political activism doesn't means how active he is for cause for people, but how well he connected. My friend is connected to local leader who is connected to one of Young Cabinet Minister of India. I call it a supply chain for Power. So my friend mentor count on Young Minister for ticket and my friend is counting his mentor. And that is real truth across the party and country. It really count to grow in political hierarchy whom you are connected rather how well your social contribution or capability. Basically underlining my friend concern lays the real challenge that Anna agitation poses to this feudal structure and its future. As Anna in many occasion remind people that they are master and ruling people are servant rather than reverse way were few ruling elite deciding who will be MP or MLA. That the reason why this few elite are feeling threaten and behave in most aggressive way. As it can be seen in present central government there is hardly any grass root leader from top to bottom. The main qualification of most of them is there loyalty to Congress President. The Anna threaten this elite people own survival, as citizen can become their own master and decide who should be contend the election from party rather than elite few in supply chain. There is no prize for guessing who has more chance winning election from Delhi in present situatuin, Mrs Kiran Bedi or Kapil Sibal. But whether congress will be ready to give ticket to Kiran badi in place Kapil Sibal ?

Anna Movement: Why it is different from JP Movement

Few days back I heard a debate in news channel regarding impact of Anna Agitation. At one point one of participant who is also BJP spoke person compare it with mass movement of JP and agitation of in late eighties. While BJP want to be see this Anna agitation similar to other as those mass movements has ended up in change in regime. But they will be disappointed to know that this mass movement is very different for others and far from antiestablishment. JP movement was antiestablishment and become a mass movement because of disillusionment of people of country due to unfulfilled promise after independent. It was further fuelled by youth of seventies due to wide range of unemployment and lack of opportunity. It become antiestablishment as only single party was in power since independent. So the JP movement was not really about system change but change in power. Whereas late eighties movement was totally political and for social equality. What make Anna movement unique is that it has come when India is doing good both economically and globally in world stage. Youth were also main driving force for Anna as during JP movement. But far from seeing lack of opportunity or blink future this young have jobs in MNC and high earning potential. But still they come to street, and that make me believe that desire to change is from inside in these people not due to other factors. And this can really make Anna movement in India history rather than just a history. Also Anna movement is not antiestablishment, as public faith in all political party is negative. One of best outcome of Anna movement is that it has given a voice to public and makes them started believe that they are real power in democracy not people who are ruling. Now the real challenge is to make this movement a continuous process for change not just a landmark in history. I believe that we can count Indian youth for it.

Anna Agitiation : Is it a real win ?

It was amazing to see celebration across the country as Anna victory on Jan Lok Pal Bill. But a question really come to me is it a really full victory of the demand Anna and its Team made or it is just a token victory to find a middle path so that a log jam which seems to going in last few day can be solved with a sense of victory for common people. Let me clarify first that I am real admirer of Anna and thanks to him and his Teams for making people of india aware of their actual power. Let look why this agitation has been started. The real demand of agitation was to introduce Jan Lok pal bill in parliament and pass it by 30th August. The government response to that is that Lok Pal Bill is already with standing committee and any suggestion can be given to standing committee. So what we really achieve with Anna agitation. At the end of agitation we have a resolution from Parliament without binding and ambiguous with word “In Principle” which has gone to standing committee as suggestion. Resolution from parliament doesn’t binds the standing committee to compulsory incorporate those changes. As it is clear from interview from Manu Singhivi , chairman of standing committee that they will look all suggestions and based on constitutional framework and feasibility of implementation they will finally recommend to Parliament. Can we not smell some thing fishy in it ? Is not the same argument we have heard from Mr Sibal and other government nominee in drafting committee when there was difference with Team Anna? So is it not bring us to again to square one ? The answer is Yes and No. Yes, because from process perspective we were at same point before the agitation started. Means resolution is just one of many suggestion given to standing committee as from different group of society and one of those group is Parliament. Other answer is no beacuse it will very difficult for government to do U turn when most party adore those three sticky points in front of live camera which was watched by millions across the country. But I will not be surprised if Government do the U turn after looking at their flip flop in last two weeks. As there is no time frame for bringing the Bill in Parliament the government will count on lack of public memory for changing in stand. Then the ball will be again in Anna Court. As rightly said by anna that it is just half battle won. I want to quote Winston Churchill famous word “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning”. Let hope that, we the people of India will have all of energy and determination to go till end.